Raporty i bazy danych
Ponad 81 publikacji obejmujących bankowość, ubezpieczenia, płatności, kredyty hipoteczne i zarządzanie aktywami w Polsce i Europie Środkowo-Wschodniej.
Zdecydowana większość naszych raportów jest dostępna wyłącznie w języku angielskim. Tytuły, opisy i spisy treści poniżej pozostają w oryginale.
Investment funds and asset management market in Poland, 2024
Over the past two years, the asset management sector in Poland has shown healthy growth, recovering from the contraction seen in 2022 due to geopolitical tensions following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. Since late 2022, all key market segments have experienced consistent expansion, leading to a combined total* of PLN 811 billion (EUR 188 billion) in assets under management (AuM) by the first half of 2024. Investment funds remain the dominant segment, with AuM of PLN 352 billion, followed by second-pillar pension funds (OFE) at PLN 232 billion, and insurance companies’ reserves at PLN 172 billion. The most dynamic growth has been observed in third-pillar pension funds, which reported a remarkable increase in AuM, reaching PLN 55 billion (excluding PPK) as of June 2024. Market leadership in the asset management industry is concentrated among a few key players. PZU holds the leading position, managing PLN 163 billion in assets and capturing a 21% market share. Allianz follows with AuM of PLN 97 billion and a 13% share. Two mid-tier players, Nationale Nederlanden and PKO, each command approximately 9% of the market. Collectively, the top four players account for over 52% of the total market share, highlighting the fairly consolidated nature of the industry. Poland has the largest investment funds sector in Central and Eastern Europe, with over 86 billion EUR in assets under management (AuM). Recently, the growth of fund assets in Poland has accelerated, and the country's share of the region's AuM exceeded 45% in 3Q 2024. However, despite having the highest market value, Poland still lags behind some of its peers in terms of asset value per capita and assets relative to GDP. The outlook The asset management market, which includes three main segments—investment funds, insurance reserves, and pension assets—is expected to grow by more than 25% between the first half of 2024 and 2026. By December 2026, total assets under management (AuM) are projected to exceed PLN 1 trillion, with particularly strong growth anticipated for pension assets. *key categories included: Investment funds, Insurance assets, Pension assets (2nd and 3rd pillar); Excluded are bank and structured deposits, equities, and bonds held directly --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
List of Top 200 banks in Central and Eastern Europe /2024 edition/
Total banking assets in CEE16* exceeded EUR 2.06 trillion as of December 2023 after growing by approximately 11.8% YoY. The year 2023 marked another robust performance for banks operating in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE16*), as the region experienced a significant asset growth of approximately 11.8% YoY, reaching a combined €2.06 trillion by December 2023 for the 16 countries in the region. The expansion in the CEE financial sector was evident in nearly all countries within the region, with some markets like Lithuania, Poland, and Hungary achieving double-digit growth rates. This recent surge in financial markets across CEE is a testament to the thriving economies, supported by healthy GDP growth and increasing individual incomes. Remembering the challenging year of 2020, when bank profits experienced a significant hit and key profitability benchmarks were more than halved, regional bankers have shown optimism with a gradual improvement in profitability since 2021. By 2023, the average Return on Assets (ROA) for the top 200 CEE banks reached 1.28%, while the average Return on Equity (ROE) was 11.5%. These figures represent a clear recovery and even surpass pre-pandemic levels, indicating a robust return to financial health. Moreover, the ongoing consolidation in the banking sector suggests a future dominated by a handful of top players who will effectively control the CEE markets. This trend towards consolidation around leading groups like Erste, KBC, PKO Bank, OTP, UniCredit, and Raiffeisen is likely to enhance market stability and drive further growth. For more information about developments in the banking sectors in CEE, please review the full publication. ------------------------------------------------------------------ *CEE16 include: Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovak Republic, Romania, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Croatia, Slovenia, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania, Montenegro and North Macedonia.
Insurance market in Poland, 2024-2026
As of H1 2024, Poland, with nearly €19.2 billion in gross written premiums (GWP), accounted for approximately 39% of the total regional premium in Central and Eastern Europe. (CEE14*) Poland’s insurance sector experienced solid premium growth in 2023, with these trends continuing through the first half of 2024. The non-life segment performed particularly well, with premiums increasing by 12% year-on-year in H1 2024. In the life insurance segment, growth was lower but still significant, with premiums rising nearly 5% on an annual basis. Consistent with long-term trends, a small number of top insurers continue to expand their market share, while the collective share of smaller players is declining. This trend is likely driven by recent mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and the economies of scale enabling larger insurers to offer more competitive rates. The mid-term outlook for premium income remains positive. Projections suggest that from 2024 to 2026, the nominal growth of gross written premium (GWP) will remain stable, albeit slightly below historical averages, at approximately 8% for the non-life segment and 5% for the life segment. By 2026, combined life and non-life insurance premiums are expected to exceed PLN 98 billion (EUR 23+ billion). For more information on recent developments in the Polish insurance sector, please refer to the full publication.
Bank outlets in Poland, 2024
Decline in Polish Bank Branches Slows As of April 2024, the total number of bank branches in Poland has decreased to below 9500, marking a 3.6% year-on-year decline. This ongoing reduction in bank networks mirrors previous trends, yet it's noteworthy that this year's closure rate is the lowest in over a decade. It remains uncertain whether this slowdown indicates that banks are nearing a minimal viable network size, where further closures could lead to significant customer loss, outweighing the savings from reduced operating costs. Over the past year, more than 350 branches were closed. Consequently, there are now approximately 4,000 individuals for each bank branch. Access to branches is predominantly easier in urban areas compared to rural regions. Lately, banks have shown a preference for shutting down excess urban branches rather than eliminating the sole service points in sparsely populated areas. The major banking centers like Warsaw, Kraków, and Wrocław continue to lead with 387, 165, and 144 branches respectively. There is an increasing trend of banks exercising caution before closing last branches in mid-sized and smaller cities to avoid losing customers who value in-person banking services—predominantly older individuals who eschew digital banking in favor of traditional, cash-based transactions. A careful cost-benefit analysis may persuade banks to maintain a certain number of branches open to prevent larger customer attrition to competitors. For more information on the current structure of the bank branch network in Poland please refer to the full publication/database.
Mortgage lending in Poland, 2024-2026
The residential construction industry in Poland continued to be impacted by negative trends that began in 2022. Declines in building starts (-9% YoY), permits (-19% YoY), and completions (-8% YoY) were recorded in 2023. This reduced supply of new real estate, combined with demand stimulation resulting from a new government-sponsored program dedicated to first-time homebuyers, was reflected in accelerating real estate prices. As the prices of real estate break all-time records, the affordability for buyers keeps falling, which is a key factor supporting the growth in new mortgage lending. The recent downturn in real estate construction, seen in 2022 and 2023, is expected to reverse due to rising property prices and new governmental support programs that are anticipated to boost demand. The impact of the monetary factor—namely high interest rates—is projected to diminish in 2024 and 2025, which should further support growth in new mortgage lending. This sector is poised for additional momentum from a new government lending support scheme planned for 2024. Assuming these conditions, our base scenario forecasts a slight increase in overall mortgage lending in 2024, followed by a more significant rise in 2025 and 2026. Total outstanding lending is estimated to reach PLN 545 billion by 2026, with the loan-to-GDP ratio expected to stabilize at approximately 13%. For more information on recent developments in the Polish banking sector, please refer to the full publication.