Research report: Banking market in Poland, 2018
Research report: Banking Market in Poland, 2018

pdf file Research Report: "Banking Market in Poland, 2018-2020"

Banking volumes have continued to grow during 2017, however, they increased slower than in the past. Deposits of non-financial clients at banks reached PLN 1.14 trillion after a 4% YoY growth while client loans increased to PLN 1.15 trillion, recording a 3% YoY growth. The recent change in key volumes was balanced across all client segments, however, corporate lending advanced slightly faster than other variables. As a consequence of growing client volumes, total banking assets went also up and reached PLN 1.78 trillion as of December 2017.

Consolidation trends observed in previous years continued also in 2017. Santander`s subsidiary - BZ WBK secured the acquisition of retail and SME activities of Deutsche Bank Polska while BGŻ BNP Paribas was the winner in negotiations for the business of Austria's Raiffeisen bank leaving Poland. As a consequence of recently announced deals, the banking market will soon become pretty concentrated with 6 major banks managing assets in excess of PLN 100 billion each and holding a combined market share in excess of 55%.

For more information on recent developments in the Polish banking sector, please refer to the full publication.


Table of contents

Slide 1: Executive summary
1. Macroeconomic overview
Slide 2: Poland - General overview
Slide 3: Poland vs. other consumer markets in Europe, 2016/2017
Slide 4: Key macroeconomic indicators, 2012-2017
Slide 5: Foreign trade statistics, C/A balance, FDIs, 2012-2017
Slide 6: Unemployment, wages & salaries, 2012-2017
Slide 7: Disposable income in households, 2012-2017; income distribution 2015
Slide 8: Consumer confidence Index evolution, 2011-Feb.2018
Slide 9: Warsaw Stock Exchange - Turnover, Market cap and indexes, 2012-2017
2.1. Banking market - General trends
Slide 10: CEE banking markets: Size vs. growth matrix, 2015-2017
Slide 11: CEE banking penetration benchmarks - International comparison, 2017
Slide 12: Structure of the Polish Banking System, 2017
Slide 13: Polish Banking System ERA analysis, 1989-2017
Slide 14: Evolution of banking assets by groups of owners (domestic/foreign), 2012-2017
Slide 15: Top 10 foreign investors in the Polish banking market, 2017
Slide 16: Banking assets evolution (LCU, EUR), 2012-2017
Slide 17: Banking assets evolution by groups of banks, 2012-2017
Slide 18: Top 12 commercial banks, market shares, ownership, 2017
Slide 19: Evolution of market shares for top commercial banks, 2014-2017
Slide 20: Concentration of the banking market, 2016/2017 (Assets, Branches, ATMs, HH Index)
Slide 21: Deposits of non-financial clients by segment, 2012-2017
Slide 22: Loans to non-financial clients by segment, 2012-2017
Slide 23: Deposits and loans of financial clients, 2012-2017
Slide 24: Foreign funding evolution, 2012-2017
Slide 25: Non-performing loans value and NPL ratios by type of business segment, 2011-2017
Slide 26: Non-performing retail loans, ratios by type of product, 2007-2017
2.2. Banking market - Regulatory overview
Slide 27: Regulatory overview: Regulatory bodies in the Polish banking market
Slide 28: Central Bank interest rates and mandatory reserve policy, 2005-2017
Slide 29: Inter-bank yield curves, 2012-2017 (WIBOR 3M, Polonia O/N)
Slide 30: Basel II/CRD implementation status, Capital requirement, own funds and CAR ratio for banks, 2012-2017
Slide 31: Bank outlets by type of bank, 2012-2017 (q1)
Slide 32: Employment in commercial banks, bank assets per employee evolution, 2012-2017
Slide 33: Direct employee costs evolution, 2012-2017
Slide 34: ATM number and transaction value evolution 2012-2017, ATM players, Mar. 2018
Slide 35: POS number and transaction value evolution 2012-2017, POS players, 2015 H1
3. Retail banking
Slide 36: Demographic trends determining future number of bank clients, 2015-2030F
Slide 37: Retail banking clients by segment - pyramid (mass market, affluent, personal and private banking), 2017
Slide 38: Cash in circulation, cash vs. deposits ratio, 2012-2017
Slide 39: Household deposits evolution, split local vs. foreign currency, 2012-2017
Slide 40: Household deposits by sub-segments, 2015-2017
Slide 41: TOP banks serving household sector, market shares, 2017
Slide 42: Current account penetration in Poland, Bank account holders demography, 2016
Slide 43: Bank account penetration gap: Poland vs. Europe, 2016
Slide 44: Current accounts of individuals (ROR) at major banks, 2015-2017
Slide 45: Internet use and Internet users in Poland, 2017
Slide 46: Number of accounts with online access and number of online accounts actively used, 2012-2017Q3
Slide 47: Mobile devices and mobile banking, top banks and number of users, 2015/2017
Slide 48: Innovation in payments – digital wallets /mobile payments: MasterPass, PayPal, Visa, PKO IKO, BLIK, PayU, SkyCash, mPay etc.
Slide 49: Investment funds assets evolution, domestic and foreign funds, 2012-2017
Slide 50: Investment funds - top 10 players, 2017
Slide 51: Personal Financial Assets (PFA) structure and evolution, 2014-2017
Slide 52: Loans to household sector by type, evolution, 2012-2017
Slide 53: Mortgage to household sector by currency, 2012-2017
Slide 54: Mortgage to household sector – new sales, 2012-2017
Slide 55: Consumer lending evolution, 2012-2017
Slide 56: Consumer lending – new loans, 2013-2017
Slide 57: Financial intermediaries: Value and number of loans sold, 2015-2016
3.1. Payment cards
Slide 58: Cards issued by type, 2012-2017
Slide 59: Cards payments: Poland vs. Europe, growth vs. market development stage, 2014-2016
Slide 60: Cards payments: International comparison, card payments value, volume, cards issued, 2016
Slide 61: Card transactions by type (cashless, cash), share of cash transactions, 2012-2017
Slide 62: Credit card transactions , values, volumes, per card evolution, 2012-2017
Slide 63: Top players in credit cards business, co-branding partners, 2016
4. Corporate banking
Slide 64: Corporate subjects by size, number, employment, revenues and profits, 2016
Slide 65: Corporate subjects, revenue and profit evolution, 2012-2017
Slide 66: Number of firms by turnover (with 10+ employees), 2016
Slide 67: Corporate subjects, regional distribution, 2017H1
Slide 68: Corporate deposits and loans evolution, 2012-2017
Slide 69: Top players in the corporate banking market, market shares in deposits and loans, 2017
Slide 70: Brokerage business, top players, shares of investors groups, 2012-2017
Slide 71: Leasing market, structure by industry, top players, 2012-2017
Slide 72: Factoring market, top players, 2012-2017
Slide 73: Non-treasury debt securities market, 2012-2017
5. Banks' profitability
Slide 74: Nominal rates on loans and deposits by segment, implied interest margins, 2015-2017
Slide 75: Commercial banks - profitability tree, 2014-2017
Slide 76: Commercial banks - revenue, costs and profits composition, 2017
Slide 77: Top 5 commercial banks profitability tree – peers comparison, 2017
Slide 78: Segment reporting (1/2): volumes, revenues and profit by segment (retail, corporate, other), 2017
Slide 79: Segment reporting (2/2): volumes, revenues and profit by segment (retail, corporate, other), 2017
6. Banks' valuation and M&A activity
Slide 80: Share price performance in the stock market for key listed banks in Poland, 2016-2018 Q1
Slide 81: Market multiples for major listed banks in Poland, 2018 Q1
Slide 82: Strategic control map for major listed banks in Poland, 2018 Q1
Slide 83: Efficiency of top banks in Poland - Cost to income, Assets/Personnel/Branches benchmarks, 2017
Slide 84: Acquisition transactions in the Polish banking market (1/3), 2005-2008
Slide 85: Acquisition transactions in the Polish banking market (2/3), 2009-2011
Slide 86: Acquisition transactions in the Polish banking market (3/3), 2012-2016
Slide 87: Acquisition transactions in the Polish banking market (3/3), 2017-2018
Slide 88: New entrants, 2014-2017
7. Top 5 banks - Profiles
Slide 89-90: Bank profiles: PKO Bank Polski
Slide 91-92: Bank profiles: Bank Pekao
Slide 93-94: Bank profiles: BZ WBK
Slide 95-96: Bank profiles: mBank
Slide 97-98 Bank profiles: ING Bank Śląski
8. Mid-term forecasts
Slide 99: Forecast - household loans & deposits, 2018-2020
Slide 100: Forecast - corporate loans & deposits, 2018-2020
Slide 101: Forecast - banking assets, 2018-2020
9. Notes on methodology

End of report.